I'd rather be happy than right: 2015 personal election review

Well that didn't go as expected.  With the luminous exception of Scotland, I was completely wrongfooted by how the election result turned out.  I could argue that so was everyone else but that would be a bit of a cop out.  It's my turn to eat some humble pie.

So what did I get right and what did I royally mess up?  The best place to start must be my end of year predictions:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/2015-may-and-everything-after.html

These were, in order:

1. There would be a hung Parliament
2. It will be neck and neck between the Lib Dems and the SNP which would be the third party.
3. UKIP would get a good poll rating and few seats to show for it.
4. The Greens would take precisely one seat: Brighton Pavilion.
5. The debates would take place, basically in the format put forward by David Cameron.
6. The election campaign wouldn't change very much.
7. There would be a Labour minority government.
8. All of the leaders (except Nicola Sturgeon) would be in peril of losing their jobs.

Not good, are they?  I was right about UKIP and the Greens, half right about the debates (the format changed considerably) and right about the pressure on the leaders apart from David Cameron - though Nigel Farage's bouncing resignation was an innovation in British politics that I hadn't expected.  But for the rest, I was hopelessly wrong. 

There's no point sugaring the pill, this was a terrible set of predictions.  What went wrong?

Despite being very aware that polling was an unreliable friend and likely to be particularly unreliable this time with the rise of UKIP and the SNP and the crash of the Lib Dems, I still relied heavily on the opinion polls.  I think I acted correctly when I put together these predictions - you have to make use of the evidence that you have got in the absence of concrete reasons to doubt that evidence.  At the turn of the year, I had no such concrete reasons.

In fact, my year-end predictions were largely what I expected right up to 10pm on 7 May 2015 (but by that stage I expected the SNP to far outstrip the Lib Dems, though even then not by as much as in fact happened).  The polls had remained static, even though the mood music from both main parties and the campaign itineraries of the two main party leaders suggested something different from the polls.  That failure to revise my expectations was less forgivable.  Ed Miliband would not have been campaigning in North Warwickshire and David Cameron would not have been campaigning in Twickenham and Bath if they didn't believe that the election was far adrift of where the polls suggested.  One of them might have been wrong.  Both of them were most unlikely to be.  I should have taken more notice.

So I wasn't right.  But I am still happy.  Why?  Because my betting produced the returns I was looking for from them.  How did I turn a profit when I had been such a poor prophet?  I need to break this down into asset allocation, stock selection and timing.

As of 10pm on Thursday night, my portfolio of fixed price bets was comprised in the following categories:

1. Scottish constituency bets, almost all on the SNP
2. English constituency bets, the great majority on the Conservatives, but not exclusively if I saw bets that I thought offered disproportionate value on other parties
3. Hung parliament (I'll come back to this)
4. Labour most seats
5. Labour minority government
6. Laying David Cameron as Prime Minister after the election and backing Ed Miliband as Prime Minister after the next election
7. Miscellaneous others

I had placed some spread bets, but this time I didn't put huge sums at stake that way.  My focus was elsewhere.

You can see from the bets that I placed that these were partly indirectly hedging.  Relative longshot Conservative constituency bets were inconsistent with bets in categories 4, 5 and 6 in particular.  By selecting constituency bets that I felt were likely to outperform each party's run-of-the-mill seats for the same odds, I hoped to maximise returns.

I did so well on my Scottish constituency bets that everything else pales into insignificance.  They comprised roughly 80% of my winnings.  This was a triumph of asset allocation - all those hours I spent poring over the likeliest SNP wins proved entirely superfluous in the end (indeed, at an early stage I had managed to back the SNP to win Edinburgh South, the one seat that they did not take, though having obtained odds of 25/1 on that possibility I can scarcely be too upset).

But I did OK elsewhere also.  On Thursday morning, I thought that most of my English constituency bets on the Conservatives were heading for the virtual ashtray.  But on Friday morning, they largely came up trumps.  My strategy of seeking out value on both sides of the fence left me ahead.  Here, stock selection was more important.  And I did OK, particularly as regards the battle between Labour and the Conservatives.  

Labour took ten seats from the Conservatives.  Of these, I had placed losing bets on the Conservatives holding City of Chester, Hove and Ilford North.  But conversely I did bet on Labour taking Brentford & Isleworth and Ealing Central & Acton.  I avoided betting on the other five either way.  Meanwhile, I successfully backed the Conservatives (at fairly long odds) to keep many of their other most marginal seats, and while I'd backed Labour to take some other seats, I am not embarrassed by my choices there either.  Taken as a whole, I think I did a pretty fair job of identifying which Conservative seats might underperform and where Labour might outperform against the Conservatives.

In other battlefields, the story was much closer to neutral overall (I did conspicuously badly with UKIP).  But I did best where I'd bet most.  

I made one other critical decision early on Friday morning which was worth a four figure sum to me.  After seeing the exit poll, I was aware that it was in doubt whether the Conservatives would merely be the largest party or whether they might get an overall majority.  Following the results in Nuneaton and Swindon North, where the Conservatives had outperformed the exit poll in each case, I reversed my previous position on no overall majority and backed the Conservatives getting an overall majority at fairly long odds.  Timing was everything on this. 

If this all sounds too smug, please return to the top and reread my serving of humble pie.  I will.  Overall, I made a complete hash of my predictions.  Fortunately, I got away with it.  This time.

2015: May and everything after

For the last few years I have got into the habit of making predictions about the coming year.  I do so not because I think that I'm particularly prescient (I'm not, as I showed yesterday) but because I want a record of what my thoughts were at a given point and to see how those assumptions were confounded or met over the year.

The last few years have been trial runs, but 2015 is a big year in British politics.  What's going to happen?

Where we are now

The first thing we need to do to find out where we are going is to establish where we are now.  At the end of 2014, I summarise the current state of British politics as follows.  Labour seem to have a tiny lead over the Conservatives: however, both are languishing at lower polling levels than either is accustomed to or would have hoped at this stage.  Labour seem to have gone backwards over the last year, shedding votes to the SNP, the Greens and UKIP, while the Conservatives are flatlining:

From the barrage of constituency polls that we have had this year, it seems that the swing from Labour to the Conservatives in the marginals is of the order of 2 or 3% at present.  That raises the question how trustworthy constituency polls are, of course.

The Lib Dems remain nailed to the canvass in the national polls, though they are bearing up a bit better in some of the constituency polls where they are incumbents, at least where the Conservatives are their main opponents.  UKIP have had a very good year, picking up two MPs by defections and currently tallying something like 15% in the polls.  Meanwhile, the SNP have responded to their defeat in the referendum by gaining a huge wave of support and are currently miles ahead of Labour in the Scottish polls.

The public remain disdainful of politicians.  George Osborne is reckoned on balance to be doing a good job but the public don't like him.  David Cameron and Nigel Farage have their fans (but more detractors), while Jacques Cousteau would be needed to investigate the popularity ratings for Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg this year.  Incredibly for a Labour leader, Ed Miliband has lower popularity ratings in Scotland than David Cameron.

With the public thinking so little of politicians, they're making up their own minds about what they think about things.  It's like watching a convoy of rubber ducks floating on the ocean, being carried by currents in different and not immediately predictable directions.

What of the economy?  The economy has done pretty decently in 2014, certainly by international standards, and employment rates are at a record high.  This has not yet flowed through into wage increases, so the public is not yet getting any benefit from any economic upswing.  Meanwhile, the deficit remains obdurately high.  Oil prices are coming down, which is starting to flow through to the price at the petrol pumps.  But the Eurozone looks set to be plunged into renewed uncertainty with the pending Greek general election, and nothing good looks likely to come out of the confrontation with Russia any time soon.

Public services to date have been bearing up surprisingly well, given the pressures on public finances.  The NHS seems to be struggling more this year than last year, however, and there's still plenty of time for a full-blown health service crisis to erupt.

Predictions

Isaac Asimov set his short story Franchise in 2008, so by now it should be possible for one man to determine the election, right?

1. The next election will produce a hung Parliament

This is a long-standing prediction and I'm sticking to it.  Right now, I'm pretty confident about this prediction - I wouldn't bet against it at anything less than 5/1 and even at 5/1 I wouldn't be racing to bet on either party getting an overall majority.  The chances for the Conservatives of securing an overall majority look ethereal, while those for Labour look flimsy.  In fact, I'm not expecting either to get 300 seats as matters stand now.

The last year has failed to show any upswing in Conservative fortunes at all.  Will the coming months of 2015 be any different?  I expect they will see some upswing, as voters start focussing on the decision at hand.  But I doubt it will be all that much - a very few percentage points that will come primarily from UKIP and Don't Know.

Ed Miliband has had an awful end of the year, with his conference speech proving to be a turkey.  Given his success in previous conference speeches and the importance of the last before an election, this was both surprising and devastating for his credibility.  He seems to have been recovering his poise for the end of the year, but he is poorly placed to rally the troops.

I currently expect Labour and the Conservatives to be neck and neck for most seats.  Right now I'd give Labour the edge.  But I'm not very confident about this.

2. It will be neck and neck between the SNP and the Lib Dems as to which is the third party

I expect the SNP now to break through in Scotland.  The referendum has produced a decisive realignment in Scottish politics and Labour has not yet caught up with this.  It has just over four months to do so, and while I regard Jim Murphy as a capable politician, even the most inspirational player is going to struggle to turn round a three goal deficit with ten minutes to go.  I expect that the SNP will get upwards of 30 seats in Scotland. 

Conversely, I expect the Lib Dems to be reasonably resilient against Conservative opponents and as a result to get something towards the top end of their expectations in seat tallies - maybe as many as 35.

3. UKIP will get a good poll rating and few seats to show for it

The kippers are not going to go away before the next election.  They have successfully kept in the public eye throughout.  They have a fervent core that passionately believes in their party a (nd their leader.  They haven't got the slightest interest in voting tactically.

In seats which are safe for the main parties now, no one will try to dissuade them.  So UKIP will get sizeable vote shares in those seats.  Unless, however, they have a further polling advance, they are not going to have seats to show for those sizeable vote shares.

Kippers are going to be put under pressure to vote tactically in marginals where they are not in contention.  This will have limited success with soft kippers (kedgerees?), but rather less than the main parties might hope, given the fervour of the UKIP faithful.

What of UKIP's own prospects for seat gains?  I expect UKIP will get a handful - if I were forced to guess now, maybe as many as ten.  Beyond Clacton, it's hard to predict exactly which seats and I expect some surprises - as much for the seats that they don't take as the seats that they do.  And of course, we may yet see one or more defections to UKIP before May.

4.  The Greens will take precisely one seat: Brighton Pavilion

They'll put in a good effort in Norwich South and a decent effort in Bristol West, but I don't see them taking either.

5. The debates will take place, basically in the format put forward originally by David Cameron

When David Cameron originally put forward his 2:3:5 format for debates (Lab+Con; Lab+Con+LD; Lab+Con+LD+UKIP+Green), it was suggested by some that it was a spoiler to ensure that the debates wouldn't take place.  However, the broadcasters put forward a 2:3:4 format, with the Greens ending on the cutting room floor.  With the Greens perking up in some of the polls and the desire to get the debates taking place,  I anticipate that the broadcasters will accede to the original idea put forward by David Cameron.

This is rough on the SNP and on Plaid Cymru, and broadcasters will need either to ensure that the debates don't take place in the election campaign period or to ensure that the SNP and Plaid Cymru get their own chance to put their arguments to their publics.  But a way will be found.

6. The election campaign won't change very much, but a lot of people will try to persuade you otherwise

Election campaigns rarely change the result too much, except when a party's campaign implodes.  That is possible, but unlikely.

Last time round I persuaded myself that the Cleggmania was real, and placed speculative constituency bets accordingly.  If I'd simply gone away for a month and placed no bets, I would have made more money than I actually did.

I'm expecting the same to be true this time around as well.  My most confident prediction is that a lot of very excitable kippers will be predicting gains in all kinds of seats.  These claims will be hard to judge because it is UKIP's first time seriously contesting a general election.  Without the most compelling evidence, I shall be treating such claims with a lot of caution.

7. The next government will be a Labour minority government

Yes, I'm talking my own book here, but it does seem to me the single most likely outcome.  If  you agree with me that the next Parliament will be a hung Parliament, the Conservatives are going to need to be able to secure a majority with the support of the Lib Dems before they are in serious contention to form the next government (with one exception, which I will come back to).  That means that they need at least 290 seats, which looks a real stretch right now.

The one exception is the idea, floated this morning in the FT, of a grand coalition:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/fb55f168-807f-11e4-872b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3NOIuBjpy?segid=0100320

Numerically, it is likely to be by far the most stable government.  In cold logic, it would make short term sense (though Nicola Sturgeon and Nigel Farage would swoon in ecstasy at all their soundbites being made flesh).  In reality, both sides are way too tribal to make it work.

So the government looks likely to be Labour-led.  Will it have any other component parts?  It is my assessment that the Labour leadership don't see the need to get a formal coalition together and have no wish to reward the Lib Dems for their perceived treachery in 2010 or the SNP for having taken substantial numbers of Scottish seats in 2015.  So they will go it alone.

8. All change at the top (mostly)

The election result will convulse all the main parties (with the exception of the SNP). 

If David Cameron is out of power, he is out of a job: the Conservative party is ruthless that way and anyway too many of his MPs hate him for him to survive.  Who will replace him?  Much depends on a man whose thoughts are hard to read: George Osborne.  In 2005 he declined to stand for the Conservative party leadership, recognising correctly that the public would engage much better with David Cameron.  He has established a large client base in the party, and if he stood he would certainly stand a good chance of getting the job.  Does he now want to do it? 

My guess is that he has not changed his self-assessment and that he would prefer to be a power behind the throne.  If he is wise, he will not have changed his self-assessment - he is too disliked on a visceral level by the public and too associated with David Cameron to be able to take the party forward.  If he throws his weight behind Sajid Javid, he would immediately become the man to beat.  The Conservatives like making unexpected choices and Sajid Javid would tick a lot of boxes that the Conservatives would dearly love to tick.  He's also a pretty orthodox Conservative.

If George Osborne jumps the other way, I expect Boris Johnson would get the job.  It would be entertaining, at least.

If the Lib Dems are not in government, as I expect, then I expect Nick Clegg to make way in 2015 for someone that the public would listen to.  If the Lib Dems were wise, they would choose Steve Webb, who is a minister who has personally achieved much in office, is personally charming, comes from the left of the party but has shown he can work well even with the most Thatcherite of ministers and could articulate a fresh vision of liberalism.

However, I expect that the Lib Dems will choose Tim Farron.

Labour would not be immune from turmoil.  While it would be in government, the many in the party who are unimpressed with Ed Miliband would find ways of giving voice to their unimpressedness.  So long as Labour get most seats,  Ed Miliband is probably safe enough.  If, however, Labour fall behind the Conservatives in the seat count, there must be a significant chance that Ed Miliband would face a leadership challenge, even if Labour led the government.  I do expect Ed Miliband to stay on if Labour are in power.  But I don't see it as a certainty by any means.

Oh, and Nigel Farage better win his seat in Thanet South.  It's hard to see how he could remain leader of the party if he was not part of its Parliamentary representation.  Though Lord Farage has a certain ring to it, I suppose.

My predictions for 2014: a retrospective and an exercise in humility

For the last few years I have made predictions for the year ahead.  I have done so not because I expect to be right but because I want a record of what seemed plausible at the start of the year and so that I can judge at the end of the year what was right and wrong and why.

Tomorrow I'll make my predictions for 2015, but first of all I need to look back over 2014.  I'm bracing myself.

So what did I predict for 2014?  I put my thoughts on politicalbetting here (near the very bottom of the thread):

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/12/30/farage-gives-in-to-ukips-facebook-revolution-over-syrian-refugees-and-gives-a-christmas-gift-to-the-tories/

For convenience I'll repeat them here

***

2014: coming to conclusions

2013 was a relatively quiet year for British politics. No big elections were planned and none came unexpectedly. The same cannot be said for 2014, where the EU elections assume an unusual importance in the minds of political obsessives and the interminable Scottish independence referendum reaches its denouement. And we draw ever closer to the general election scheduled for May 2015. By the end of the year, the likely result of that should be clear.

Where are we now?

To work out where we are going, we first of all need to work out where we are now. At the end of 2013, the economy looks in far better shape than even George Osborne would have dared to hope at the end of 2012. We've had a year of growth and if the economists are to be believed, we can expect better growth in 2014. This has no doubt contributed to the appreciable shrinking in Labour's lead over the last year and the appreciable improvement in the Government's ratings.

In the UK as a whole, no politician commands much respect. Nick Clegg remains deeply unpopular, while Ed Miliband is not faring much better. David Cameron performs better than both, but still has negative ratings. The public dislike both George Osborne and Ed Balls a lot. Alex Salmond does a bit better in Scotland, mind. Nigel Farage does better than the three main party leaders, but largely because he is still not that well-known by the public.

The public remain in a surly mood. In an important though misreported ICM poll, the great majority of the public professed themselves to be angry or bored with politics and politicians, with nearly half choosing anger as the dominant reaction.

The importance of this is that the public are not being led. So they are heading off in their own direction, with little leadership. They won't change their minds unless some event happens to change them. It's unlikely to be the words of a politician that they don't respect, unless that is someone who they were reluctantly thinking of voting for who says something to lose their vote. Ed Miliband, as leader of a party which outstrips his own popularity, and Nigel Farage, as leader of a party of protest, have particular need to be careful about what they say and do in 2014.

What's coming up in 2014?

It's impossible to know what is coming up with any certainty. For example, who would have thought at the beginning of the year that we would have a horticultural theme to our scandals, with both a Bloom and Flowers hitting the headlines? But we can make a stab at some things.

When the public aren't being effectively led by politicians, the economy will be disproportionately important. Is it going to do as well as expected? Personally, I have my doubts. But since I'm not an economist, I shall take my cue from the experts. If they're right, we can look forward to steady growth, at last exceeding the 2008 peak (a potentially important landmark). The deficit should continue to come down. Unemployment is expected to reduce – though with productivity at unexpectedly low levels at present, employers might instead address this first before recruiting. And earnings might - might - start outstripping inflation again.

If these things happen, you can expect George Osborne to make hay with this. It won't make the British public like him more – the public have already decided that they don't like him in the same way that they don't like Simon Cowell or Jimmy Carr. But that won't stop some of them grudgingly accepting that things might be getting better.

The result of the EU elections will set the tone for much of the rest of the year. Will UKIP remain a force to be reckoned with? Can the Conservatives secure their right flank? Can Labour get its vote out in a real election for once? Just how badly can the Lib Dems do? It's likely that all will have reasons to fret, almost regardless of the result.

We get two sporting events that might affect the politics of the nation. First, we get the World Cup. David Cameron and Alex Salmond will both be hoping for an England triumph. Neither is remotely likely to get their wish. Then (and with more plausible political consequences) we get the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow. Alex Salmond and the Yes campaign will be hoping for a well-run games to get the type of fillip that the Olympics gave the UK as a whole in 2012. If the games run into trouble, however, Scotland would visibly have failed on the international stage. The consequences for the Yes campaign would be dire.

It's going to be a year of anniversaries. Many have already noted that it will be 100 years from the outbreak of the Great War, and cynics have noted that we shall reach the 700 year anniversary of the battle of Bannockburn just before the Scottish independence referendum. An anniversary that has so far been less commented-upon is the 100th anniversary of the Government of Ireland Act. Ulster was on the brink of armed insurrection as a result, and it may well prove the launchpad for some fresh perspectives on unionism (both positive and negative) in the run-up to the Scottish referendum. At the very least, it might provoke some northern Irish unionists into discussing the impact of a hypothetical Yes vote on northern Ireland.

One wildcard: we may get the Chilcot report. That would almost certainly cause fireworks, but like a Catherine wheel these might spray out in all directions.

Predictions

The future is unwritten, but I don't propose to sit on the fence. I shall put my tin hat on now, because a lot of people aren't going to like these.

1. UKIP will peak at the EU elections and then decline quite sharply in their polling

In many ways, UKIP were the story of 2013. Many political observers have forgotten just how recently they have shot to prominence. At the beginning of 2012, UKIP were going nowhere. Off the back of the omnishambles budget they built a support base of lower paid voters who felt abandoned by the main parties and who in turn rejected them. In 2013, they have built on this further.

But the party leader does not seem ready for the scrutiny that he is now going to get. The UKIP annual conference was derailed by Godfrey Bloom's gaffe and by Nigel Farage's panicky reaction to it. He reacted with a complete lack of humour to an ill-advised joke by Anna Soubry at his expense. Under a storm of protest from his support base, he partially retreated from an eye-catching policy in support of taking refugees from Syria to supporting only taking Christian refugees. He seems to make up policy on the hoof and to be unsteady under fire. Interestingly, Godfrey Bloom (a longstanding friend of his) has also made similar criticisms.

This is unlikely to impede UKIP's prospects for the EU elections, which the public by and large does not treat seriously. Few vote and many of those who do will do so without giving their choice much thought. UKIP may well finish top of the poll, propelled there on a wave of angry voters telling the main parties "up yours". Labour has struggled to convert its polling into success at the ballot box and there is no obvious reason why it should start outperforming expectations in 2014. The Conservatives lack a USP for the EU elections, though their voters do at least tend to turn up. I expect something close to a photo-finish between these three parties, and they could feature in any order.

But once the raison d'etre of the party, to cause trouble in the EU, has been fulfilled, it will struggle to find a reason to be more. While voters will cast protest votes, they will like to tell themselves that they are voting for a serious party. With a leader who simply isn't good enough, I expect that many of their current supporters will drift away.

2. Labour will be at best level pegging in the polls at the year end

It's the economy stupid. At present voters still don't feel the improvements in the economy and many still don't believe the economy has turned the corner. If the economy performs as we currently expect, this will change. Some voters will give the Government the credit and change their voting intention accordingly. Not many need to do this to bring the Conservatives back to parity. Don't be surprised if some of the UKIP supporters who came from Labour decide to take their allegiance to the Conservatives rather than to return to Labour, using UKIP as a conduit between the two main parties. But I expect most of any increase in Conservative support to come from "don't know".

I do not, however, expect Labour's vote share to decline all that much. With the Lib Dems in government and the Greens performing hopelessly, Labour will remain the repository for most of the progressive vote.

3. Lib Dem polling may pick up a bit, but it will still look dire at the end of the year

Some progressives may conclude that the performance of the economy vindicated the Lib Dems' decision to go into government with the Conservatives. This will be a niche segment and will not boost the Lib Dems' polling much.

 

4. We'll have another year of no major changes in political personnel...

This is a braver prediction than in previous years: if Nick Clegg is going to go before the next election, he will do so in 2014. He has the escape route of EU Commissioner if he wishes to take it or colleagues may seek to oust him before the 2015 election, which looks to be at best challenging for the Lib Dems. But a coup would be difficult - too many senior Lib Dems have been too complicit in the coalition to make it easy for them to participate. Nick Clegg has said that he is going to lead his party into the next election, and he's famously a man of his word. I believe him. I also expect the Lib Dems to see the coalition through to the end of the Parliament. Having got this far, there's no advantage for them in changing their minds.

David Cameron and Ed Miliband both look safe to the next election, excluding accidents. David Cameron doesn't like to reshuffle (it's too complicated in a coalition). Ed Miliband will probably stick with his present team as well.

5. ...except for Alex Salmond

After the result of the Scottish referendum, I don't see Alex Salmond carrying on. Unlike many politicians, he has a hinterland (he's already retired from politics once before) and after a once in a generation referendum, I can't see him wanting to stick around, because...

6. The Scottish independence referendum will be decisively lost

If votes were measured on intensity of feeling, the Yes campaign would win comfortably - its supporters are passionate to the point of monomania. But unless Alex Salmond can turn the referendum into a referendum on the Conservatives (something which he is now trying hard to do), it's hard to see how the Yes campaign can gather the support necessary to win. It is still floundering on the process questions. Until it has a cogent answer as to why Scots should take a leap in the dark, it will struggle. Since it hasn't found one in time for the White Paper, I expect it to lose and to lose convincingly this time.

That's not to say the No campaign has been much good. It has given no positive case for Britishness. But in the short term, spreading fear, uncertainty and doubt should be sufficient to see it home.

***

So how did I do?  In truth, not very well.  So this should be instructive.

1. UKIP

I was correct that UKIP could win the Euro-elections and I was correct in expecting something close to a photo-finish between the three main parties.  But as for the rest, I could scarcely have been much wronger.  Far from fading after the Euros, UKIP finish the year stronger than ever and are enervating both main parties.  They now have Parliamentary representation and can reasonably hope to increase that in May.

Why was I wrong?  A few reasons.  First, I fell into the trap of thinking of the electorate as a single entity.  While many voters detest Nigel Farage, many other voters are either not bothered by his missteps or actively enjoy and identify with his image as a non-politician and his party's image as the naughty boys of politics.  Secondly, UKIP's fortunes were transformed by Douglas Carswell's defection.  If he and Mark Reckless had not defected to UKIP, it would be far from clear now that UKIP would have sustained the autumn momentum to stay in the public consciousness all the way through to May.  There is no chance of UKIP slipping from public view now.  Thirdly, both main parties but especially the Conservatives have chosen to respond to UKIP's rise by effectively admitting that UKIP is right - a strange way to persuade voters back.

Anyway, I got this seriously wrong. 

2. The main party polls

Labour remain slightly ahead of the Conservatives at the end of the year.  So I was wrong on this too.  And not only was I wrong on the headline, I was wrong on the detail too.  Far from only dropping a little, Labour dropped quite a lot, losing votes to both UKIP and the Greens.  But the Conservatives completely failed to recover in the polls, despite the economic upturn.  That is the single most surprising development in the polls for me over the last year, and is ominous for the blue team if they have eyes to see it.

3. The Lib Dems

Tick VG.  I was right on both the headline and the detail. 

4. Political personnel

Also tick VG.  OK, David Cameron had a reshuffle and Michael Gove was demoted, but I think I can give myself this one.

5. Alex Salmond

My best prediction.  Sometimes I get things right for essentially the right reason.  No matter that he seems to have changed his mind within a month, I'm giving myself this one.

6. The Scottish independence referendum

OK, I got the result right.  But I'm not giving myself this one.  I was expecting the margin to be substantially wider.  Why was I wrong?

I largely put this down to a very poor campaign by the No side.  At the end of last year I noted that it had given no positive case for Britishness.  I expected it to try to do so during 2014.  Its failure to do so was an affront to its cause.  Its victory in September may yet prove to be Pyrrhic as a result.

Conclusion

I got some stuff right, but to be honest I feel that I got the really important things wrong.  It's important for me to remember that the next time I put together what seems like a penetrating analysis of the shape of things to come and still more so when I start relying on my analysis to place bets.  Sometimes things turn out quite differently from how you expect.